To get all its extra supplies out of Afghanistan, NATO needs to send one container over the Afghan border every seven minutes from now until 2015. With the Pakistan-Afghanistan border open again, much of that will travel southward. About a third, however, will make the even more perilous journey North, toward Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Given the conditions on these routes, NATO might not be leaving on time. Read more.
To the Shores of Tripoli - What Comes Next?
The international community worked at a furious pace to hammer out the terms of intervention in Libya. But the seemed to spend more time “getting the European Union, the Arab League, the G-8, and the Security Council to agree on the language than on the content” of the UN Security Council Resolution, writes Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.
At this point, the international community has two options: to either protect the opposition movement in Cyrenaica, the vast eastern province in which Benghazi is located, but not force Qaddafi out of power, or make Qaddafi’s ouster an explicit goal…
If international action simply contained Qaddafi by halting his advance, he would be left in control of Tripolitania, the northwestern province in which Tripoli is located, leaving Cyrenaica effectively independent…
But politically speaking, such a division would be disastrous.
He goes on to argue that the “international community needs a proactive agenda and a clear plan for the intervention” in Libya if the country is going to recover post-Qadaffi.
- Qaddafi’s departure would leave behind a political vacuum that would need filling as soon as possible.
- It is worth noting that although there is as yet no other opposition group, the Libyan National Council is national only in its aspirations.
- Much of Tripolitania still genuinely supports Qaddafi and would likely be resentful of whatever took his place and refuse to join an LNC-led government.
- To overcome antagonism between the provinces and to guide the country through the arduous process of state building and reconstruction that would follow Qaddafi’s departure, institutions would need to be truly national and representative.
- The international community would also have to steer the development of democracy and good governance in a country that has not known anything except tyranny for decades.
Looks like the international community might be in it for the long haul.